On January 6, 2021, an armed insurrection occurred at the United States Capitol. This was the outcome of months of priming, where many elected officials got their followers to believe things that would justify an attack on democracy. The question arises: could this happen in Canada? Let’s analyze the chain of events that led to the riots to figure it out.
The uprising started with the delegitimizing of the mail-in ballots. As early as last April, former President Trump tweeted, “Republicans should fight very hard when it comes to state-wide mail-in voting. Democrats are clamoring for it. Tremendous potential for voter fraud, and for whatever reason, doesn’t work out well for Republicans…” By doing this, he initiated the idea that mail-in ballots are fraudulent, and should not be counted. He continued to reiterate this up until the election. In Canada, this could definitely happen. Someone could suggest that there could be mail-in fraud and that we should do everything possible to have a “free and fair” election. But would that be enough to start riots at Parliament Hill?
On November 7, 2020, when Joe Biden was declared the winner of the Presidential election, Trump and the majority of the Republican Party claimed that the entire election was rigged through mail-in ballots and voter suppression in favour of Democrats. The idea of a stolen election brought America one step closer to the riots, because it wasn’t just implying that there was a likelihood of fraud, but that the entire election was rigged. Again, this could happen here in Canada. The election could be questioned. But would these two things be enough to cause a riot?
Then, on January 6, there was a MAGA (Make America Great Again) rally in Washington D.C.. Trump’s speech was inflammatory; it was clear that he and the other speakers were pushing for what happened next. It started with the usual claims of election fraud. Then he proceeded to say that “History is going to be made. We’re going to see whether or not we have great and courageous leaders or whether or not we have leaders that should be ashamed of themselves throughout history.” This is a clear call to action. During the entire speech, there were lies in almost every phrase such as, “This is the most corrupt election in the history, maybe of the world.” The way he ended his speech was one of his most overt incitements of insurrection. “So we’re going to, we’re going to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue, I love Pennsylvania Avenue, and we’re going to the Capitol and we’re going to try and give… The Democrats are hopeless…But we’re going to try and give our Republicans, the weak ones, because the strong ones don’t need any of our help, we’re going to try and give them the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country.” This messaging was being fed to a mob that already felt as though they had all been cheated. They managed to breach the Capitol, desecrate it, and try to attack congresspeople. Eventually it was dealt with, and they were removed, but the ideological meaning behind this shows the great divide in our society. The dogmatism of the MAGA movement is clear, and because Trump is their divine figure, they will defend him at the cost of democracy. Refusing the results of an election because your candidate lost is anti-democratic because it undermines the entire foundation of the system. January 6 was the climax of election tensions and something this drastic most likely wouldn’t happen in Canada. There would only be a portion of the population that would believe in the possibility of fraud, and most Canadians probably would not want to engage in violence. This is a drastic step that Canadians wouldn’t take.
However, claims of fraudulent ballots and the questioning of validity of some ridings are two valid possibilities. Regardless, this wouldn’t lead to an uprising as it did in the United States. In a recent poll by Angus Reid, less than 1 in 5 Canadians believe that the U.S. election was unfair. An even smaller number would attend a violent rally to protest that. Even more proof of this is the Canadian federal government’s decision, on February 3, to declare the Proud Boys as a terrorist entity. The Proud Boys are a far-right, neo-fascist group that regularly engages in, and provokes, political violence. This decision was only possible because our politics are, in general, more left-leaning.
Further Reading: Post-Riot Events
After the insurrection, Trump was permanently banned from his social media platforms, because the respective companies didn’t want to be associated with him. His Twitter account had peddled blatant misinformation in regards to election fraud and far-right conspiracy theories. After Trump’s social media removal, there was also a purge of many other far-right accounts across social media platforms, so they could distance themselves from the January 6 attack. This wouldn’t happen here; our political climate would have to change drastically for one of our politicians to engage in activity that could get them banned from social media.
Trump then decided to not attend President Biden’s inauguration. He was the first outgoing President to not attend his successor’s inauguration since Andrew Johnson in 1869. This shows the intense divisiveness surrounding the election, and the extreme lack of unity. If Trump had accepted his loss and been at the inauguration, it could have calmed down some of the political tension in America. The inauguration itself had much more security than usual to prevent any violence like the insurrection at the Capitol, and nothing happened. This was the final moment of the transfer of power, and the end of claims of ‘Trump can still win’. This is something that Canadians would never do. Out of politeness alone, they would attend their opponent’s swearing-in ceremony.
This timeline shows how a claim as simple as questioning the validity of mail-in ballots can spiral into an insurrection at the centre of a country’s democracy. Even though we might not get to that final step anytime soon, we still have to remain wary of these problems because they aren’t unique to America. Canadians are not immune to the same rhetoric that is used in the United States. Many of the incremental things that happened there could also happen here. A Léger poll in September showed that only 16% of Canadians support Donald Trump. However, when you break this number down it is more revealing; 41% of Canadians who are affiliated with the Conservative Party of Canada support Trump. Pro-Trump rallies took place in Toronto and Calgary on January 6. This is an issue across all of North America. To combat this, we need to restore faith in science, and continue to persist in de-radicalizing people from the right, to prevent other attacks such as the Capitol Hill riot, or other anti-democracy movements such as #stopthesteal. Another tactic is to make these movements politically irrelevant. 34% of Americans and 33% of Canadians didn’t vote in their latest federal elections. Appealing to this demographic and getting them to vote would help a great deal in stopping violence and ending the undermining of our democratic values.
An attack on Parliament Hill isn’t going to happen anytime soon. Despite that, many actions and ideas adjacent to the attack are definitely possible. It is up to us to stop them.